Proposition 56 (2016)
Issue: Tobacco Tax
Campaign: Yes on Prop 56
Clients: Anti-tobacco groups, doctors, hospitals, health plans
Spending: $35 million (against $70 million by the industry)
Initial public poll: 63% Yes / 32% No
Final results: 64% Yes / 36% No
Tobacco taxes have been proposed and defeated at the ballot on multiple occasions in California over the last two decades, including Prop 86 (2006) and Prop 29 (2012). Prior to 2016, tobacco tax proponents were unable to craft a measure and supporting campaign that could withstand the significant opposition spending from the industry – $67 million in 2006; $47 million in 2012.
In 2016, a coalition of public health advocates and providers qualified a tobacco tax measure to fund tobacco prevention, treatment and research, with a focus on shoring up the state’s troubled Medi-Cal program.
The coalition hired Spectrum Campaigns to provide strategic guidance on research, messaging and paid media. Prior campaigns had focused their messaging largely on public health, protecting children and to a lesser extent on the industry, which had left them exposed to fiscal arguments that appealed to California voters’ fiscally moderate sensibilities.
The Yes on Prop 56 campaign didn’t abandon the prior messaging, but did weave in a greater focus on the industry and on the financial costs of tobacco, helping to strengthen voters’ natural tendency to support a tobacco tax and weakening the effectiveness of the industry’s messaging. This positioning helped withstand a $70 million barrage of No ads funded by the industry.
In the end, the Yes campaign finally broke through the industry’s long-held firewall and soundly won by 4 million votes. Despite $70 million in spending by the industry against the measure, it actually ticked up by one point from initial polling to win 64% Yes to 36% No.